Friday, May 20, 2016

Steelers 5 Potential Late FA Signings


The Steelers have a tendency to sign players that have some experience with the team. We've seen players like Will Gay, Larry Foote, and Matt Spaeth get second stints with the team. We also saw this with Ross Cockrell, who the Steelers showed pre-draft interest in and later signed once he was released by the Bills. Most recently we saw this happen when the Steelers signed tight end David Johnson the other day, who was with the team from 2009-2013.

This got me thinking, what are some other available free agents that have some experience with the Steelers...

Will Allen (S) 

The most obvious candidate on the list, as well as another player who received a second stint with the team. Allen may not be as quick as he used to be, but he is still a smart player who's veteran experience would benefit the Steeler's young secondary. He is a reliable player that Tomlin trusts/

Similar to how the Steelers have handled veterans in the past, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Steelers give Allen a call during or following training camp pending on injuries as well as how comfortable Tomlin is with his group of safeties.

Lance Moore (WR)

Remember this guy? It's okay, most people forgot he was on our team, even while he was still on it. Many expected Moore to have at least a modest role in our offense when he was signed for the 2014, but ended the season with a measly 14 receptions for 198 yards and 2 touchdowns. The emergence of Martavis Bryant certainly didn't help his case.

This is a signing that would certainly surprise me, but if the Steelers have interest in bringing in a veteran wide receiver, Moore is a guy that certainly could be on Tomlin's list.  The two didn't end on great terms with Moore requesting to be cut, but maybe he doesn't hold grudges. 

Sean Hickey (G)

The first player on the list who has never worn black and gold. Hickey is a player that the Steelers showed interest in prior to the 2015 draft. He was signed by the Patriots, but was released this offseason. Although the Steelers have guard depth in BJ Finney & Chris Hubbard, both players the team seems to be fond of, Hickey is another player who would be brought in pending on injuries and if Tomlin is unhappy with his group of guards. 

Alex Carrington (DE)

A stretch, but hey, you never know. The Steelers showed interest in Carrington last offseason, bringing him in for a visit. He was ultimately resigned by the Rams. The Steelers have depth at DT, but their DE depth is lacking. Behind Heyward & Tuitt, the team only has L.T. Walton & Cashaud Lyons. Although unlikely to be signed, Carrington is a candidate if the Steelers feel the need to bring in a veteran defensive end. 

Brandon Boykin (CB)

Last but not least. Boykin is an enigma. Traded for a 5th round pick, benched for the majority of the season, signed by the Panthers 2 weeks after free agency started, then couldn't even make the 90 man roster and was cut. Pretty odd. 

Boykin wasn't the star many hoped he would be when we traded for him, but he did show in his limited playing time that he is a solid football player. With the Steelers secondary being young, a veteran like Boykin would help in theory. However though, I would put my money on Boykin not be resigned. Considering Boykin is viewed exclusively as a slot cb, the fact that the Steelers have 2 slot-flexible cornerbacks with Gay & Golson, and the Steelers selecting Artie Burns with their first overall pick this year, it appears there is no role for Boykin on this roster. 

Plus, with considering Boykin's difficulty landing on a roster, there must be something about him we don't know.

Final Thoughts

I'm not advocating for the Steelers to sign any of these players. However if at any point the Steelers decide to look for more depth to add to the team, I feel all of these players have the potential to get a call. Some are more likely than others, but as we've seen in the past and even just recently, the Steelers like to sign players who have some experience with the team.

Monday, May 16, 2016

Steelers 2016 Draft vs Recent Draft Trends


If you've been following me for awhile then you know I love analyzing data. This offseason, I've done studies analyzing how pre-draft visits correlate with players drafted by the Steelers, as well as recording the number of offensive & defensive players drafted each year during the Tomlin-era. Now that the 2016 draft has concluded, it's time to see if the Steelers followed these recent trends.

If you want to check out these studies you can follow the link by clicking the titles of the studies. 

Pre-Draft Visits vs Drafted Players

This study addressed if there is a correlation between the players brought in for pre-draft visits and players drafted.





Since 2010, 45% of the Steelers draft picks have been brought in for pre-draft visits. In addition, 60% of the top 4 picks during this same span have been brought in for visits.

The Steelers followed this trend in 2016. 43% of the Steelers draft picks were pre-draft visits & 75% of the Steelers top 4 picks were brought in for visits.

Pre-Draft Positions vs Drafted Players

This study addressed if the amount of visiting players at a certain position correlates with the players drafted - including whether this effects the first round selection. In this study I don't have a particular graph that encompasses the stats, but I do have key notes based on the past 3 drafts prior to 2016:

Over the past 3 drafts (prior to 2016), the top draft selection was either the first or second most visited position. 

This was trend was followed for the 2016 draft. The top two most visited positions were safety & cornerback. As you all know, Artie Burns (CB) was our first round selection this year. 

Over the past 3 drafts (prior to 2016) 2013 was the only year a player was drafted at a position that wasn't brought in for a visits. 

This trend was followed for the 2016 draft. The positions drafted - CB, S, DL, OL, LB - were all included in pre-draft visits. 

Offense vs Defense Drafted During Tomlin-Era

For this study I recorded the amount of offensive and defensive players drafted in each draft during the Tomlin-era. 



The Steelers have had a mostly balanced approach while drafting with Tomlin, drafting 35 offensive players and 40 defensive players. 

It's also noteworthy that they have never drafted less than 2 players on offense/defense. 

Although the 2016 draft differed from the majority by drafting 5 defensive players and 2 offensive players, it followed the trend of not drafting less 2 players at either offense or defense. This deviance was expected though considering the Steelers needs were mostly on defense. 

Final Thoughts 

Although these trends aren't set in stone, the 2016 draft shows that they have some significance. These trends help us predict who the Steelers will draft by narrowing down the pool of potential players as well as hint at what positions they will be targeting in the draft. 

For more information on all of these studies and trends, please go check out the original articles. You can also look forward to new editions of these studies in 2017. 

Thanks for reading. 

Monday, May 2, 2016

Steelers 2016 Draft Class Review

I've taken a lot of time to dwell on this draft class. If I pushed out this article as quickly as possible following this draft, I would be writing with skewed judgment and unprocessed thoughts. I feel that taking time to step away, think about the players, and read about various view points helped me evaluate this draft class fairly and logically. 

1) Artie Burns (Cornerback) - Miami - 6'0" 193lbs   

The Steelers taking Artie Burns with the 25th pick is a selection that has received a lot of criticism from draft "experts." If you read my reaction article, you'd know I wasn't a fan of the pick initially. However after thinking over the selection, I realized that he was the right pick for the Steelers.

Last offseason it was reported that Coach Tomlin worked closely with our cornerbacks on bump-and-run concepts; aka, Burns' specialty. It's safe to assume that Tomlin wanted to begin implementing this scheme but couldn't due to lacking the proper personnel. Many experts have written that Burns isn't a scheme fit, but it appears Tomlin intends on using him as a building block for evolving their scheme. 

Steelers Depot released an excellent article about how Burns will be spending his senior season at Steelers University. The article raised some great points:

"Here’s something to think about. Had Burns returned to Miami for his senior season, would he had ultimately been considered a universal first-round lock next year? Chances are good he would."

"While several are bemoaning the Steelers being unable to draft Houston cornerback William Jackson III due to the Cincinnati Bengals taking him one pick before it was their turn on the clock Thursday night, let’s not lose sight of the fact that had he come out after his junior year that many would have likely considered him a day-two prospect. Jackson made tremendous strides last year and his decision to stay in school wound up being the right one and solidified him as a universal first-round prospect. It’s worth noting that Jackson will also turn 24 in October."

I like these quotes because they reinforce how Burns' potential is worth the wait. He's still young and learning the position, and it doesn't help that he split his time between football and track. I think the comparison to Jackson is also noteworthy. It's entirely plausible that had Burns stayed for his senior year, he would've went into the 2017 draft as an equal, if not higher rater prospect than Jackson. This is the potential Tomlin likely sees. 

 Many criticize this selection because they wanted an impact player; an instant starter who will transform this defense and lead us to a Super Bowl. I hate to say its fan, but that's just unrealistic. I have 2 points here: 

1) How many recent 1st round corners excelled as rookies? Trae Waynes in the 2015 draft was the unanimous top corner, yet he struggled all throughout his rookie year.

2) The Steelers have been incorporating their 1st round picks as rookies and how has that worked out? Bud Dupree, Ryan Shazier, Jarvis Jones. All of these players started as rookies and none of them made a significant impact while doing so. 

Although Steelers fans (including myself) would love a first round pick to come in and have a significant impact immediately, recent history shows that rookies tend to struggle - which shouldn't be breaking news. Artie Burns just needs time - as Tomlin said, he's like a piece of clay that the stuff will mold. I trust a secondary comprised of Gay/Cockrell/Golson. Therefore I don't see any need to rush Burns onto the field. For all we know he could surprise us like Ronald Darby with the Bills, but for now I'm happy knowing we have a potential star in our secondary. 

Summary

Artie Burns is a young player who's raw, but has all the tools to be a star cornerback. Though many criticize the pick for not fitting the Steelers scheme, Burns has the perfect skillset for the direction Tomlin wants to take this defense. He may not contribute immediately, but give him time and this pick can pay dividends. 

2) Sean Davis (Safety) - Maryland - 6'1" 201 lbs

This is a pick I'm a fan of. I'm not sure why myself and many others were sleeping on Sean Davis so much. The fact that he spent that last season misplaced at cornerback likely has something to do with it. This mismatch led to many scouting reports saying he may not have the skills to play corner in the NFL. Well, NFL teams are smarter than both myself and many other writers on the internet. The Steelers saw Sean Davis for what he really was: a safety. 

To put it simply, Sean Davis is physical. He plays with aggression and a play-making mentality, which is evident by his 5 forced fumbles and 3 interceptions in 2015. The Steelers in recent history have been targeting players in the draft who produce turnovers and Davis fits the bill perfectly. Every play he seeks out an interception or a forced fumble. 

Davis and Mike Mitchell will make a perfect pairing; both are extremely physical and athletic players who will put fear into players they come across. I said it in my reaction article and i'll say it again here: Mitchell and Davis will give the Steelers their most dynamic safety duo since the Clark/Polamalu days. 


Davis may not be as pro-ready as some of the safeties from this draft class, but all the tools are there for him to be one of the best safeties from this draft class. Not only does he have all the necessary physical tools, but he excels, as Tomlin puts it, "above the neck." If you're confused what "above the neck" play means, look no further than Shamarko Thomas' inability to see the filed on defense. The Steelers are fortunate to have retained Robert Golden. His reliability will enable the Steelers to bring along Davis at a steady pace and not force him into action. It wouldn't surprise me however if he took over the starting job at some point in the season. Until then I anticipate a Moats/Dupree like rotation to start him out. Regardless of how soon he starts, I have high hopes Sean Davis is our starter of the future. 


Summary

Sean Davis is a big, bad dude. He's a physical, productive player, and focusing in on one position gives him a high ceiling. Pairing him with Mike Mitchel will put fear into receivers in the league. He may not get a lot of playing time early, but I anticipate him gradually getting more playing time as the season progresses. Great pick by the Steelers. 

3) Javon Hargrave (Defensive Tackle) - South Carolina St. - 6'1" 309 lbs 

Javon Hargrave may end up being a steal for our draft class. Many are saying he fell due to the fact that he played at a small school - that is perfectly fine with me! What Hargrave brings is rare versatility; he's capable of playing nose tackle, 1T, and 3T. This versatility will not only allow Hargrave to contribute in the 3-4 base defense, but he should also be able to spell Heyward & Tuitt as a pass-rusher in the nickel. 

Hargrave's negatives are that he comes from a small school and that he is small for his position, but considering his production, it's easy to look past these factors: 13.5 sacks during 2015, 16 sacks in 2016. These are fantastic numbers for an edge rusher, they're unreal for a defensive lineman. Hargrave may come from a small school, but his dominance there clearly shows he has the ability to compete in the NFL. With proper coaching and development, this guy can be special. 


Similar to the Artie Burns pick, the Steelers drafting Hargrave represents the evolution of this defense. Although there's still value to having a fat-man in the middle of the field (ex: Casey Hampton, Daniel McCullers) the Steelers seem to be trending towards having athletes on the field and this trend includes on the defensive line. 


Summary

Javon Hargrave could end up being the biggest steal of the Steelers draft class. His pass rushing ability will help evolve this defense and give Cam & Tuitt needed breaks. He is one of the more versatile defensive lineman in this draft class and although he comes from a small school and doesn't have perfect measurables, I expect him to make noise during training camp and eventually evolve into a major asset for this team.

4) Jerald Hawkins (Offensive Tackle) - LSU - 6'6" 305 lbs

The first truly mixed bag pick for me. I've seen people ecstatic about Jerald Hawkins and I've seen people say he was a waste of a pick - I understand both sides of these arguments. 

Hawkins has the tools to be a starting tackle in this league. He also has extensive playing experience. The Steelers are a great fit for him because he won't be forced into action; he will be given time to hit the weight room and be coached up by Mike Munchak. This time to develop could enable Hawkins to start at tackle for the Steelers 2-3 years down the road. 

The part of me that doesn't like this pick wonders why we took a developmental tackle in the 4th round. The Steelers already have depth at the position - they signed Ryan Harris to a 2 year deal. What I gather from the pick is that the Steelers don't see Alejandro Villeneuva as their long-term starter. If this is the case, this pick makes more sense. 

Overall, this pick isn't sexy, but I understand the pick. Although I would've prefered a wide receiver, Hawkins was likely the highest player on the Steelers board. Looking at who was available during their selection, the pick makes sense too when examining pre-draft visits & team needs; there aren't any players who were taken shortly after Hawkins that i'm upset we passed on. 

Summary

I am fairly neutral regarding Jerald Hawkins. This pick isn't sexy, but he gives the team great depth on the line. It'll take a year or 2 for us to find out if this pick was worth the selection, for Hawkins needs time to work on his technique and get stronger. Only time will tell.

6) Travis Feeney (Linebacker) - Washington - 6'4" 230 lbs

Travis Feeney continues the trend of this years draft: athletes. Just look at these stats: 4.50 yard dash, 40 inch vertical, 10'10" broad jump. Wowzers. One thing is for certain, this guy will be able to dominate special teams. 

Feeney played all over the defense during his time at Washington. He spent time at safety, middle linebacker, and spent his final season as an edge rusher. According to Joey Porter, the Steelers intend to use him as an edge rusher. Considering his weight, this certainly is surprising. However, Feeney will have a lot of time to bulk up and add weight. With Dupree/Moats/Harrison/Jones all splitting time and with Chickillo in the mix, Feeney has plenty of time to work. 

I love this pick because of how much potential Feeney has. Despite being slim for his position, Feeney is a hard-hitting, physical player. He has the athletic ability, tackling skills, coverage skills, and work ethic to be a contributor to this team. The biggest knock against him is that he's had 4 surgeries in his career, but drafting Travis Feeney is a risk worth taking. 

Summary

Travis Feeney is arguably the best athlete in this Steelers draft class. His problem though is that at this point he's a more-or-less a tweener. The Steelers said he's gonna be an edge rusher, but at this point he has the body of an mlb. He'll be a special teams monster early on, but may be a long time until he see's the field on defense. 

7a) Demarcus Ayers (Wide Receiver) - Houston - 5'9" 182 lbs

Demarcus Ayers has appeared to be the 2nd most controversial pick by the Steelers - behind Artie Burns. Steeler fans likely still have a bad taste in their mouth after the team spent a 3rd round pick on Dri Archer years ago. Ayers however is a different kind of player. 

Archer's greatest asset was his speed - his 4.26 40 time was ridiculous. His issue though was his lack of vision and horizontal speed. Archer struggled at seeing the field, making guys miss, and truly utilizing his speed.  

Demarcus Ayers is the opposite. If you watch Ayer's highlights, you see a player making guys miss in the open field and beating guys with his route-running ability. Ayers may not have the best 40 time, but he's slippery in the open field and plays much faster than his recorded time. Steelers special teams coach Danny Smith raved about Ayers in a recent interview; he stated he had him ranked as his #1 punt returner in the draft. If Smith thinks Ayers can be a major contributor to special teams, this makes him a good value pick for the 7th round. 

It'll be interesting see how Ayers is used as a receiver. He may be lacking in size and speed, but this never stopped him from producing. In 2015 Ayers caught 98 passes for 1,222 yards and 6 touchdowns - these numbers are fantastic regardless of any measurables. Though Ayers has been mainly discussed as a punt returner, I wouldn't sleep on his ability as a slot receiver. 

Summary

Demarcus Ayers is a player I'm surprisingly excited about. Though not a burner, he's quick and slippery - his highlights are fun to watch. I'm optimistic that he'll gather a lot of attention in training camp and make a lot of plays. He's an intriguing guy to pay attention to, and despite his less than ideal size, I think he has a lot of potential and was definitely worth a 7th round pick. 

7b) Tyler Matakevich (Linebacker) - Temple - 6'0" 238 lbs 

Tyler Matakevich is a very solid 7th round pick. He contrasts with the rest of the draft class - he's not a athletic marvel. What he lacks in times though he compensates with hard-work and instincts. Matakevich won't wow you with his speed or strength, but he always finds himself around the ball and making tackles. This is shown through his production - 465 total tackles over 4 years as a starter. 

Though he goes against the grain of the evolution of this defense, Matakevich can still carve a role for himself on this team. At this point in his career, this route is special teams. Similar to how Roosevelt Nix earned his roster spot with his excellent special teams ability, Matakevich must work hard at this during the preseason. It may take time for him to see the field, but this is a guy who will thrive off of people doubting him.

Considering how in the 7th round of the 2015 draft we took safety Gerod Holliman, a player who was notoriously soft, I'm happy with taking a gritty, hard-working player like Matakevich. Even if he doesn't earn a roster spot, he'll help push the guys in front of him with his hard work and attitude. 

Summary

Tyler Matekevich is a solid late round pick. He plays physical, smart, and certainly capable of making the practice squad if not the 53 man roster. Teams usually take fliers in the 7th round, and the Steelers were smart to take a productive, hard-working player. 

Final Thoughts:

Overall I'm happy with our draft class. We filled our 3 primary needs (S, CB, DL) and restocked our team with needed depth. I was initially jealous of teams like the Ravens & Browns who had a boat-load of picks, but then it occurred to me how many holes those teams have compared to us. Sure a 5th round pick would have been nice, but the Steelers managed to fill all their needs through the draft and free agency and now have all the necessary pieces to build a great 53 man roster. 

If there's a theme to this draft, it's athleticism and production. The Steelers chose many athletes through this draft that will bring a lot of physicality and speed to this defense. They also chose players with significant college production regarding tackles, forced fumbles, etc. 

Many "experts" have criticized our draft class for selecting projects and players who don't fit our scheme. However, this draft class is a catalyst for this defense to evolve. We chose players who fit the bill for the direction Tomlin & Butler intend for this defense.

I see potential in all of the players selected and can't wait to see how all of these guys perform in training camp and the preseason. 

Thanks for reading.