Davis/Hargrave Reactions + Day 3 Predictions

2nd Round Pick Reaction 

Sean Davis (Safety) - Maryland - 6'1" 201 lbs. 

Wow, another surprise pick by the Steelers. Time to go bury my mock draft in the back yard. With players like Andrew Billings, Vonn Bell, and Darian Thompson on the board, I would've bet we were going to take one of those guys. I'm not upset though! Davis was obviously their guy, and as I stated in my Artie Burns Reaction article, I trust our organization. 

The Steelers discussed earlier in the offseason how they want to address and improve the secondary, and boy they weren't lying. The Steelers have added size and attitude to their secondary in this draft!

Sean Davis is a big bad man; he led the nation with 5 forced fumbles in 2015. He also has ball skills with 3 interceptions. Steeler nation will fall in love with him when they see him destroying guys on the field. Unlike many of the safeties in the draft, Davis is capable of playing in the box as well as in coverage. He brings versatility to the safety position that the Steelers have lacked since the Polamalu/Clark days. I'm sure Kieth Butler has a smile on his and can't wait to play with his new safety duo. 

Similar to Burns though, he's a little raw. Lucky for us we retained Robert Golden, giving us the luxury of bringing him along at a steady pace. Davis was used at both cornerback and safety while at Maryland, and surely flipping between positions hindered his development. Being focused at safety will undoubtedly help him out. 

Overall I'm happy with this pick and I'm glad the Steelers have addressed the safety position early. For the first time in awhile i'm actually excited about this Steelers secondary.

3rd Round Pick Reaction

Javon Hargrave (Defensive Tackle) - South Carolina St. - 6'1" 309 lbs

Finally! A guy in my mock gets drafted by the Steelers! Also, the first pick that didn't catch me by surprise.

I'm so happy with this pick. Hargrave fits perfectly with what Tomlin wants from a DT. He's a guy who is able to play nose tackle in the 3-4 as well as be used as a pass rusher in the nickel. Beautiful. Surely Cam Heyward & Stephon Tuitt are happy with this pick as well because he's a player that will give them some relief in passing downs. 

Though myself and many other fans are jumping for joy, Hargrave isn't a perfect prospect. The jump from a small school to the NFL is a major adjustment so it may take him time to adapt. Raw-ness seems to be a theme for his years draft class. Because of this his impact may only be modest at first. He also has short arms (32") compared to how the Steelers prefer their d-lineman (34").

Criticisms aside, this was a perfect 3rd round pick. The Steelers filled a position of need while potentially getting a major steal. Many fans have been clamoring for a defensive tackle and boy we got one. Pittsburgh should be very excited about this pick. 

Day 3 Predictions 

The Steelers are in a perfect position going into day 3. Their major needs (CB, S, DL) were all addressed in the first 3 rounds, giving them the luxury of selecting the best player available for the remainder of the draft. Based on need, the positions they will likely be paying close attention to are WR, OL, EDGE, & MLB. Trading back may even be considered depending on who is available.

Some players I could see them taking in the 4th round:

• Pharoh Cooper (WR)
• Malcolm Mitchel (WR)
• Jerald Hawkins (OT)
• Nick Kwiatkoski (MLB)
• Jatavis Brown (LB/S)
• Devontae Booker (RB)

My 4th round prediction: Pharoh Cooper 

To reiterate, the Steelers are in a great position entering day 3 and shouldn't feel pressured to reach for any needs. I'm confident they will end the day with some quality players.

Artie Burns Reaction + 2nd Round Prediction

Pick Reaction 

Artie Burns (Cornerback) - Miami - 6'0" 193 lbs. 

As soon as the Bengals took William Jackson III (ugh) and the Steelers were on the clock, I tweeted out how I think the Steelers should trade back. As soon as I hit send, the Steelers had submitted their pick. 

The fastest pick of the first round was pick 25 for the Steelers, Artie Burns. 

I had a similar initial reaction to when Ryan Shazier was drafted: "...huh?"

Burns has all the necessary tools to be a great corner in the league, he's just raw and lacks a lot of experience. Just seems like an odd Steelers pick considering they've had trouble not only drafting, but developing cornerbacks. I was chatting with Joe Kuzma of Steel City Underground and we were both equally perplexed following the announcement. 

However, a further look and some further thinking about Burns should give fans reasons to be excited. You see statistics showing QB's had a passer-rating of 39.8 when targeting Burns and how he had 6 interceptions in 2015. You see a guy with the measurables to be a star in this league. You see a man with strong character, who had to be the man of his household once his father went to jail. You see a player with the swagger and confidence that Tomlin loves. 

The Steelers are taking the initiative to re-build this secondary. They view Artie Burns as a building block, a piece of clay for them to mold. Many may see this pick as a reach or overreaction, but I trust my team and it's leaders. The Steelers didn't hesitate to take him, showing that they believe in Burns and think he can be a major asset to this team. He obviously won't be a star from day one, but the potential is there. Welcome to Steeler Nation Artie. 

2nd Round Prediction

In the second round I'm anticipating the Steelers checking out safeties, defensive lineman, as well as some of the linebackers/edge-rushers still available. There are many guys at each position that would be great fits with the Steelers. 

Defensive lineman still available:

• Andrew Billings
• Chris Jones
• Jarran Reed
• A'Shawn Robinson 
• Jonathan Bullard
• Javon Hargrave
• Jihad Ward 

Safeties still available:

• Darian Thompson
• Vonn Bell 
• Jeremy Cash 
• Justin Simmons
• TJ Green 

Linebackers/EDGE still available:

• Noah Spence 
• Kamalei Correa
• Shilique Calhoun
• Reggie Ragland 

Steeler fans shouldn't have any worries; there are still many great players available. The Steelers are a smart team and we should all trust them to take a great player that will contribute to our team. 

My guess is the Steelers draft a safety in the 2nd round and continue to rebuild their secondary. They did an extensive amount of research on safeties this offseason and ideally one of the guys they want will fall. Defensive line depth is certainly a need in this draft, but because a safety would play a bigger role for this defense, I give safety priority. Linebacker/edge rusher can't be forgotten either. If either Spence, Correa, or Ragland fall to the 58th pick, I'm sure they would be considered.  

My 2nd round prediction: Darian Thompson 

Final Thoughts:

Tonight reaffirmed what we all know: you can never predict the draft. 

Overall I'm happy with the selection of Artie Burns. I was very skeptical at first, but as I read more about him and saw what Tomlin & Colbert said about him following the pick, I believe he was the right selection. 

I can't wait to see who else we draft tomorrow that fans will surely freak out about. 

Thanks for reading. 

SG 2016 Steelers Mock Draft

This mock draft is what I think the Steelers will do and how I think the board will fall. 

Aimed for realistic picks rather than dream picks. 

Round 1: Keanu Neal (Safety) - Florida 

The Steelers address one of their biggest needs immediately. Say what you want about Neal, but nobody can deny he's one of the biggest hitters in this draft. Neal has the swagger and hard-nosed style Tomlin covets. He has the tackling skills to help in run support and the athletic ability to drop into coverage. Teaming Neal with Mike Mitchel gives Kieth Butler an athletic safety duo that I know he'll have fun with. Neal will be able to come in and have an instant impact on the secondary with his playmaking ability. 

The Steelers have shown a lot of interest in Neal, both attending his pro day and bringing him to Pittsburgh for a visit. The Steelers also tend to draft in the first round one of the top 2 positions they brought in for a visit. 

Round 2: Javon Hargrave (Defensive Tackle) - South Carolina State

If you follow my tweets, you should know that i've been adament about the Steelers not addressed the defensive line in the first round. The 2nd round is perfect for the Steelers to address the position. Because of the depth of the defensive line class, a great player is sure to fall to the Steelers.

Hargrave perfectly fits the mold of the kind of defensive tackle Tomlin is seeking. He's a player who will be able to both play nose tackle and also be used as a pass rusher in nickel looks. Talented, undersized defensive tackles fall in the draft each year, and the Steelers will be beneficiaries of that this year. 

Round 3: Yannick Ngakoue (EDGE) - Maryland 

Many analysts have the Steelers going with wide receiver this round or next. I think drafting an edge rusher follows the same logic of drafting a wide receiver. The position is fine this year but next year the cupboard will empty, so we need to draft a mid-round guy to develop. 

Ngakoue is a great candidate to sit for a year in order to bulk up, learn the defense, & improve his technique. In a year when we're likely without Jarvis Jones & James Harrison we'll have him ready. Ngakoue has all the tools but just needs time to put it all together, making him a perfect 3rd round pick. 

The Steelers didn't bring in him for a visit, but Joey Porter attended his pro day and put him through a multitude of drills. The Steelers tend to draft at least one player they didn't visit with in the top 4 rounds. 

Round 4: Jonathan Jones (Cornerback) - Auburn 

Yeah I know, another addition the Steelers elven secondary. Jones can ball though. He compensates his 5'9" height with a blistering 4.33 40 yard dash. Throw in instincts, willingness in run-support, & ball-skills and you have a great cornerback despite his height.

Similar to fellow shorty Senquez Golson, Jones is versatile enough to play both the slot and outside. Steeler nation may groan when they see the Steelers draft another tiny cornerback, but come game-day they certainly won't be complaining. 

Round 6: Jay Lee (Wide Receiver) - Baylor  

Jay Lee fits the mold of the Steelers recent methodology of drafting wide receivers. He has the height/weight/speed to excel in the league, but he's an extremely raw route-runner and has inconsistent hands. This description sounds familiar... (Sammie Coates & Martavis Bryant). Like Coates & Bryant, Lee will need time to develop and ideally would turn into another Steelers mid-late wide receiver gem. 

Round 7a: DeAndre Elliot (Cornerback) - Colorado State 

Another year another double-dip at cornerback. DeAndre Elliot is a raw player, but has ideal measurable's. If he is able to develop, his height and length would be a great asset for our vertically challenged secondary. 

Round 7b: Caleb Benenoch (Offensive Tackle) - UCLA

With their final pick in the draft, the Steelers take a developmental offensive lineman. Benenoch shows the tools and ability, but needs to gain strength and develop his technique. The Munchak magic could help him become a solid swing-lineman for the Steelers. 


Thanks for reading!

Why the Steelers Won't Draft a DT First Round

The Steelers wont draft a defensive lineman in the first round of the 2016 NFL draft. 

This isn't a popular opinion. This goes against what many writers that are more experienced than me think. But hey, it's fun being different. 

Let me start my prefacing some things:

• I understand that the guy we would draft at 25 would both play DT & DE and could potentially play an upwards of 60% of snaps. 
• I know the Steelers have showed interest in Andrew Billings by having a heavy attendance at his pro day. 

Special Talent

Writer Ed Bouchette was the catalyst that changed my opinion on the Steelers drafting a DT first round. He had this quote on the Pittsburgh's Post Gazette's website:

"Kevin Colbert always insists that when you draft a player in the first round you are looking for someone to not only start but make an impact. Drafting a nose tackle, then, does not fill that bill because this is not 2001 when they drafted Casey Hampton and playing 30-35 percent of the time does not allow for someone to make much of an impact. And you do not use a first-round pick to spell either of their two defensive ends, one they consider a star in Cam Heyward and the other a future star in Stephon Tuitt."

The Steelers want to find special talent in the first round. You see it with guys like Bud Dupree & Ryan Shazier (we're gonna ignore Jarvis Jones), those two are freak athletes that have the potential to be difference-makers on the field. We've seen this in spurts by Shazier & although we're yet to see Dupree's potential, the arrow is pointed up for him. 

When you have these players that are difference-makers, you don't want to take them off the field. Although a first round DT could certainly be an impact player, it doesn't make much sense to draft a player in the first round if they won't have the opportunity within a year or 2 to start and play the majority of snaps. 

Trends & Data 

I've done multiple studies this draft season analyzing the Steelers draft trends. The study that is the most applicable here is Steelers Pre Draft Positions vs Players Drafted. In this study I analyzed the players the Steelers drafted over the past 3 years compared to the amount of each position visited. 

The data showed that over the past 3 years, The Steeler's first round pick has been either the 1st or 2nd most visited position. This year, the top 2 positions were S & CB. These trends in no way guarantee that S or CB will be our first round pick, but it's consistent enough to convince me that the trend will continue this year.

Safeties visited: 10
Corners visited: 8

The study was done prior to visits being complete, but the percentages don't significantly change with the updated data. 

Draft Depth 

The consensus among football writers is that defensive line is the deepest position in the draft this year. With the position having so much depth, the Steelers could afford to wait and grab a play in the 2nd round.

 Two players they have shown interest in that are definite possibilities in the 2nd round are Jihad Ward & Javon Hargrave. Both of these players could fulfill the role as a nickel pass-rusher, which seems to be the primary focus of the Steelers as they have looked at d-lineman this offseason. 

Depth Chart 

Contrary to popular belief, the Steelers do currently have defensive line depth on the team. They drafted L.T. Walton last year in the 6th round who spent the season on the 53 man roster, and also have Caushaud Lyons who spent the year on the practice squad.  Although it wouldn't be wise to completely rely on these unproven guys, they may see potential in these guys. 

The Steelers also went and signed DE/DT Ricardo Mathews who formerly played for the Chargers. Mathews isn't expected to be a game-changer, but he appears to have the tools to be able have a solid, Arthur Moats-like impact as a rotational player. Big Dan McCullers is also on the roster and at the moment is our starting nose tackle, though he is a giant question mark.

Final Thoughts

It is certainly true the Steelers would benefit from drafting a defensive lineman early in a draft and they likely will. However, I personally believe they should avoid the position in the first round of the draft. I wouldn't be upset if they ultimately drafted a player like Andrew Billings, I just don't buy that it's gonna happen. 

Thanks for reading. 

Offense vs Defense Drafted During Steelers Tomlin-Era

I’ve went through a lot of Steelers mock drafts this year; my picks seem to be changing constantly. One trend I recently noticed among all of my mock drafts is that the vast majority of my picks are on defense. This made me think of the question:

 “Do the Steelers usually balance picks for offense & defense?”

To answer this question, I compiled some data & I made a spreadsheet of the number of offensive players drafted and defensive players drafted during the Tomlin era.

The Data:

Total Offense Drafted: 35
Total Defense Drafted: 40

Observations:

• During the Tomlin era, only 3 drafts have had the number of offense/defense players differ by more than 1 player: 2015, 2012, 2011

• Tomlin has never drafted less than 2 offensive players in a draft.

• Tomlin has never drafted less than 3 defensive players in a draft. 

• It seems for the most part that the Steelers balance out their picks between offense and defense. 

Why does this matter:

I think the relevance of this study comes from the reminder that the Steelers won’t ignore offense during the draft.

The Steelers have much greater depth problems on defense than offense, having needs at CB, S, DL, OLB, MLB – basically every position of defense. Despite this need, it's highly unlikely they ignore offense during the draft.

I would guess they draft at least 2 players on offense. Based on team need and pre-draft visits, these offensive positions are likely between: WR, OL, QB.

It's also certainly possible that offense is addressed more than people expect, due to the fact that 6 of the 9 drafts under Tomlin have had offense & defense drafted only differ by 1 player. 

Final thoughts:

When making your mock drafts and trying to guess the Steelers picks, its best you make sure you include at least 2 players on offense.

This study isn’t exactly groundbreaking, but I still find this data noteworthy, especially for those like myself who both enjoy analyzing trends and making mock drafts. It's easy to ignore offense this year, partially due to the Steelers only bringing in 3 offensive players for pre-draft visits.

So keep this in mind when making your mock drafts, I certainly will. 


Thanks for reading. 

Steelers Pre-Draft Positions vs. Drafted Players

Update: the updated numbers with all 30 visits doesn't significantly change any of the data in this article. 

As you know by some of my prior articles, I'm a fan of data & numbers. I'm intrigued by searching for different trends that may indicate the Steelers plans for the draft.

For this article, I'll be analyzing the positions of the players the Steelers have brought in for pre-draft visits in comparison to the positions they drafted. As you will see from this study, there's been a correlation over the past three drafts. It may easy to assume that the positions they bring in for visits are the positions they draft, but the data reveals some trends you may not have been aware of.  

For my study I also won't be taking into account pro-day attendance or dinners. 

Enough talk, lets dive in. 

2015 Draft 

Count of the number of each position that was brought in for a pre-draft visit:


Cornerback: 8 

Linebacker: 7 

Wide Receiver: 5 

Tight End: 5 

O-Line: 2 

Safety: 1 

D-Line: 1 





The 2015 draft class: 

1. Bud Dupree (LB)
2. Senquez Golson (CB)
3. Sammie Coates (WR)
4. Doran Grant (CB)
5. Jesse James (TE)
6. Anthony Chickilllo (LB)
6. L.T. Walton (DL)
7. Gerod Holliman (S)

Observations:

• Cornerback was the most frequent position brought in & 2 were drafted in the first 4 rounds. 
• Linebacker was the 2nd most frequent position and brought and again, 2 were drafted. 
• Wide receiver and tight end tied with 5 visits each and both were drafted. 
• Each player drafted had at least 1 player in their position brought in for a visit. 
• Offensive line was the only position brought in that wasn't addressed in the draft. 

2014 Draft

Count of the number of each position that was brought in for a pre-draft visit:

Linebacker: 7 

Cornerback: 7 

D-Line: 5

Wide Receiver:  5

Safety: 3 

Running Back: 2 

Tight End: 1 

2014 Draft Class:

1. Ryan Shazier (LB)
2. Stephon Tuitt (DL)
3. Dri Archer (RB)
4. Martavis Bryant (WR)
5. Shaq Richardson (CB)
5. Wesley Johnson (OL)
6. Jordan Zumwalt (LB)
6. Daniel McCullers (DL)
7. Rob Blanchflower (TE)

Observations:

• Linebacker was tied with cornerback for the most positions brought in; the position was our 1st round pick & 2 were drafted. 
• Despite being tied for the most brought in, the cornerback position wasn't addressed until the 5th round. 
• Defensive line was tied for 3rd and 2 players were brought in - 2nd & 6th round.
• Wide receiver was tied for 3rd and 1 player was drafted in the top 4 rounds. 
• Despite only have 2 running backs visit, the position was addressed in the 3rd round; Dri Archer who they drafted wasn't brought in for a visit. 
• Safety was the only position brought in for a visit that wasn't addressed in the draft. 

2013 Draft

Count the number of each position that was brought in for a pre-draft visit:


Linebacker:  8 

Cornerback: 6 

Safety: 4 

Running Back: 3

Wide Receiver: 3

O-Line: 1 









The 2013 draft class: 

1. Jarvis Jones (LB)
2. Le'Veon Bell (RB)
3. Markus Wheaton (WR)
4a. Shamarko Thomas (S)
4b. Landry Jones (QB)
5. Terry Hawthorne (CB)
6a. Justin Brown (WR)
6b. Vince Williams (LB)
7. Nick Williams (DL)

Observations:

• Linebacker was the position most brought in; the position was our 1st round pick and 2  of them were drafted. 
• Cornerback was our 2nd most brought in position yet wasn't addressed until the 5th room. 
• Safety was the 3rd most visited position and one was taken in the 4th round. 
• Despite only 3 wide receivers being brought in, 2 were drafted. 
• Both a quarterback & a defensive lineman were drafted despite both positions not being brought in for a visit.  

So does any of this actually matter? 

Looking at this data you can see some trends:

•  In each of these 3 years, the top 4 or 5 positions were addressed in the top half of the draft. 
• In 2013 and 2014, the most brought in position was that of the first round pick. 2015 didn't follow this trend, but the 1st round picks position was the 2nd highest - only missing by 1. 
• Only in 2013 was a position drafted that wasn't brought in for a visit. 

What does this mean for this years draft?

Count the number of each position that was brought in for a pre-draft visit as of 4/8

Safety: 8
Cornerback: 5
D-Line: 4
O-Line: 2
Linebacker: 1
Tight End: 1
Wide Receiver: 1

Looking at these numbers makes it clear the Steelers will be targeting players for the secondary in this years draft. It's always worth mentioning that the linebacker brought in was Jatavis Brown, who some see as a S/LB hybrid. Because the top 3 positions are safety, cornerback, and defensive line, I assume these will be the top 3 positions taken. 

Many writers, including myself, have mocked players like Andrew Billings & Vernon Butler to the Steelers, but the trends over the past 3 years show that the first round pick has been either the 1st or 2nd total amount of a position brought in. These numbers can still change; the Steelers are still allowed to bring in about 8 more players for visits. This also doesn't take into account the Steelers presence at Andrew Billings & others pro days. 

After compiling this data, I do think the Steelers first round pick this year will be either a cornerback or a safety; past data indicates this. I would of course be happy with us drafting Billings or Butler, but the data shows a clear trend. 

I did a similar article to this: "Steelers Pre-Draft Visits vs. Drafted Players". If interested in seeing the relation being players brought in for visits vs players drafted, you can read it HERE

Thanks for reading!

Every Steeler in B/R's NFL 1000

In recent years Bleacher Report has done a series titled the NFL 1000. In this Matt Miller and a team of writers tackle the behemoth task of ranking the top 1000 players in the NFL and ranking the top players at each position.

This article contains the grades for each Steeler rated in this series. I don't want to try to steal clicks from this great body of work, so i'm simply posting the grade for each & you can click the links to read each lists yourself. Click the position title to follow a link to the original articles. I highly encourage everybody to go check out these out; some of the grades may shock you!

Click the position title to follow the link. 

QUARTERBACK

Ben Roethlisberger: 5/50

Landry Jones: 31/50

Michael Vick: 43/50

RUNNING BACK

Le'Veon Bell: 3/80

DeAngelo Williams: 17/80

WIDE RECEIVER

Antonio Brown: 2/80

Darius Heyward-Bey: 67/80

Martavis Bryant: 72/80

Markus Wheaton: 80/80

TIGHT END

Heath Miller: 14/75

Jesse James: 43/75

Matt Spaeth: 70/75

LEFT TACKLE

Kelvin Beachum: 15/35

Alejandro Villanueva: 30/35

LEFT GUARD

Ramon Foster: 12/35

CENTER 

Cody Wallace: 22/35

RIGHT GUARD

David DeCastro: 6/36

RIGHT TACKLE

Marcus Gilbert: 3/35

DEFENSIVE END

Cam Heyward: 5/40

Stephon Tuitt: 15/40

NOSE TACKLE

Steve Mclendon: 14/20

OUTSIDE LINEBACKER

James Harrison: 14/50

Arthur Moats: 37/50

Jarvis Jones: 39/50

Bud Dupree: 49/50

INSIDE LINEBACKER 

Ryan Shazier: 27/50

Lawrence Timmons: 41/50

CORNERBACK

William Gay: 23/101

Ross Cockrell: 73/101

STRONG SAFETY

Will Allen: 32/35

FREE SAFETY

Mike Mitchell: 12/40

Robert Golden: 31/40

KICKER

Chris Boswell: 16/32

PUNTER

Jordan Berry: 18/32