This isn't a popular opinion. This goes against what many writers that are more experienced than me think. But hey, it's fun being different.
Let me start my prefacing some things:
- I understand that the guy we would draft at 25 would both play DT & DE and could potentially play an upwards of 60% of snaps.
- I know the Steelers have showed interest in Andrew Billings by having a heavy attendance at his pro day.
Special Talent
Writer Ed Bouchette was the catalyst that changed my opinion on the Steelers drafting a DT first round. He had this quote on the Pittsburgh's Post Gazette's website:
"Kevin Colbert always insists that when you draft a player in the first round you are looking for someone to not only start but make an impact. Drafting a nose tackle, then, does not fill that bill because this is not 2001 when they drafted Casey Hampton and playing 30-35 percent of the time does not allow for someone to make much of an impact. And you do not use a first-round pick to spell either of their two defensive ends, one they consider a star in Cam Heyward and the other a future star in Stephon Tuitt."The Steelers want to find special talent in the first round. You see it with guys like Bud Dupree & Ryan Shazier (we're gonna ignore Jarvis Jones), those two are freak athletes that have the potential to be difference-makers on the field. We've seen this in spurts by Shazier & although we're yet to see Dupree's potential, the arrow is pointed up for him.
When you have these players that are difference-makers, you don't want to take them off the field. Although a first round DT could certainly be an impact player, it doesn't make much sense to draft a player in the first round if they won't have the opportunity within a year or 2 to start and play the majority of snaps.
Trends & Data
I've done multiple studies this draft season analyzing the Steelers draft trends. The study that is the most applicable here is Steelers Pre Draft Positions vs Players Drafted. In this study I analyzed the players the Steelers drafted over the past 3 years compared to the amount of each position visited.
The data showed that over the past 3 years, The Steeler's first round pick has been either the 1st or 2nd most visited position. This year, the top 2 positions were S & CB. These trends in no way guarantee that S or CB will be our first round pick, but it's consistent enough to convince me that the trend will continue this year.
Safeties visited: 10
Corners visited: 8
The study was done prior to visits being complete, but the percentages don't significantly change with the updated data.
Draft Depth
The consensus among football writers is that defensive line is the deepest position in the draft this year. With the position having so much depth, the Steelers could afford to wait and grab a play in the 2nd round.
Two players they have shown interest in that are definite possibilities in the 2nd round are Jihad Ward & Javon Hargrave. Both of these players could fulfill the role as a nickel pass-rusher, which seems to be the primary focus of the Steelers as they have looked at d-lineman this offseason.
Depth Chart
Contrary to popular belief, the Steelers do currently have defensive line depth on the team. They drafted L.T. Walton last year in the 6th round who spent the season on the 53 man roster, and also have Caushaud Lyons who spent the year on the practice squad. Although it wouldn't be wise to completely rely on these unproven guys, they may see potential in these guys.
The Steelers also went and signed DE/DT Ricardo Mathews who formerly played for the Chargers. Mathews isn't expected to be a game-changer, but he appears to have the tools to be able have a solid, Arthur Moats-like impact as a rotational player. Big Dan McCullers is also on the roster and at the moment is our starting nose tackle, though he is a giant question mark.
Final Thoughts
It is certainly true the Steelers would benefit from drafting a defensive lineman early in a draft and they likely will. However, I personally believe they should avoid the position in the first round of the draft. I wouldn't be upset if they ultimately drafted a player like Andrew Billings, I just don't buy that it's gonna happen.
Thanks for reading.
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